First session in 2012 of the Food Situation Forecasting Committee (CPSA)

The objective of this session of the Forecasting Committee was to assess in a participatory manner the current food and nutrition situation and the food outlook of the country through:

• the participatory development of the various final aggregates (final cereal and food balances, final coverage rate of regional and provincial cereal needs) characterizing the country’s food outlook;
• analysis of the current food and nutritional situation and outlook;
• updating the inventory of the various ongoing operations;
• the formulation of recommendations to decision makers for better management of the country’s food situation.

The work took place in plenary with the presentation of ten (10) presentations, followed by discussions.

1. The first presentation was made by Mr. Léopold NANEMA of the DGPER who shared with the participants the summary of the last joint monitoring and evaluation mission of the current food and nutritional situation of households. This mission, which took place from 05 to 12 February 2012, covered the thirteen (13) regions of the country.
2. The second presentation made by Madame Bénédicte PEMOU of the National Society for the Management of Security Stocks (SONAGESS) presented the evolution of food prices, the supply outlook and the price evolution forecasts.
3. SANOU Inoncent from the Directorate General of Livestock Forecasts and Statistics (DGPSE) presented the evolution of animal prices and the terms of trade for livestock / cereals. From this presentation it appears that the terms of trade goat / but have deteriorated.
4. The following presentation was made by Mr. Prosper SAWADOGO from the Department of Nutrition. He presented the provisional results of the SMART nutritional survey conducted by the Department of Nutrition in August-September 2011 across the country. This presentation highlighted the trends observed in acute malnutrition, chronic malnutrition and underweight.
5. The fifth presentation was made by Mrs. Caroline DOUANIO of SONAGESS on the cereal collection operation in surplus areas. It emerges from the presentation that as of today, the quantity of cereals collected by SONAGESS agents is estimated at nearly 4,500 tonnes and 6,000 tonnes are expected from decentralized structures, while in the As part of the operation cost vie, nearly 4,200 tonnes of local rice and 1,205 tonnes of KR rice, were sold. The presentation also highlighted that the first phase of the operation to sell cereals at social price has just been completed and involved the Sahel and northern regions which benefited from 1,315 tonnes. The second phase is in the process of being implemented.
6. The presentation on the final results of the 2011/2012 crop year was presented by Mr. Oumarou SONGRE from the DGPER; it brought out a final cereal production estimated at 3,666,405 tonnes. This production is down 19.61% compared to the previous 2010/2011 agricultural season and 5.09% compared to the average of the last five years. As for cash crops, final production is estimated at 814,194 tonnes; it is also down by 17.16% compared to the last campaign and by 12.80% compared to the average of the last five years. For other food crops, production is 729,557 tonnes, a decrease of 16.69% compared to the previous one and an increase of 14.13% compared to the average of the last five years.
7. Sitégné HIEN of the DGPER presented on the methodologies in order to allow a participative development of the main aggregates.
8. The final cereal balance sheet was presented by Mr. Mohamed BARGO and Mr. Morou BOUDA of the DGPER presented on the coverage rates of provincial cereal needs. For cereal needs coverage by province, the situation is as follows:

• 17 provinces are in deficit with a coverage rate of less than 90%.
• 13 provinces are in equilibrium with a coverage rate of between 90 and 120%.
• 15 are surplus with a coverage rate exceeding 120%.

The presentation on the final 2012 food balance indicates that the needs for plant products are covered at 135.4% and those in animal products at 175.8%. The analysis reveals that during this same period, the needs for fruits, legumes, sugar, grains, tubers, oilseeds, meat and fish are met.

9. The ninth presentation was given by Mr. Sitégné HIEN and focused on the results of the Household Economy Analysis (HEA). Based on three (3) scenarios and based on official data on grain and livestock prices, agricultural production and inflation available, the analysis of the household economy yielded the following results :

• For the 1st Scenario which covers the period from January to March 2012, ten (10) provinces would have a survival deficit and 16 provinces a livelihood protection deficit. The vulnerable population is 994,939 people with 513,142 very poor and 481,797 poor. The needs are estimated at 30,910 tonnes for an amount of 6,445,299,000 FCFA.
• For the 2nd Scenario covering the period from April to June, 20 provinces would be in deficit of survival and 27 provinces in deficit of protection of means of existence. The vulnerable population would be 2,065,738, including 1,008,975 very poor and 1,056,763 poor, the needs would be estimated at 63,787 tons, or 13,899,434,000 FCFA.
• For the 3rd Scenario which covers the period from July to September, 26 provinces would be in deficit of survival and 32 provinces in deficit of protection of means of existence. 198 high-risk municipalities have been identified. The vulnerable population is 2,850,280 of which the very poor are 1,359,036 and the poor 1,491,245. The needs are estimated at 118,508 tons, or 35,194,406,000 FCFA.

10. The last presentation presented by Mr. OUEDRAOGO Barou Oumar from SE-CNSA focused on the updated Operational Plan. The update took into account the results of the last joint mission in February 2012 and the results of the household economy survey. The total updated cost of the response plan amounts to 103,930,067,350 FCFA. The State and certain partners have already mobilized more than 18 billion FCFA representing 18% of the budget. This results in a total financing requirement of CFAF 85,516,593,494, or approximately € 130 million, corresponding to 82% of the total cost of the support plan for vulnerable populations.

At the end of the work, the participants made the following recommendations:
At cost
Ministry of Agriculture and Hydraulics

• Continue monitoring monitoring (food situation, market prices, etc.) in at-risk areas (rural and urban) and local consultations useful for setting up this monitoring;
• Make the Regional Food Security Monitoring Committee operational by providing it with an operating budget;
• Pursue sales activities at social prices and sample shops;
• Strengthen advocacy, information and communication activities on the evolution of the situation and the current response;
• Ensure the functioning of coordination and monitoring structures to facilitate and optimize the coordination of the current and future response;
• Update the response plan and follow-up of response preparation activities (operation Bondofa, transfer of cereals).

Ministry of Animal Resources

• Pursue the efforts of biological diagnosis to locate on the nature of the assin disease;
• Support the CBPP vaccination campaign by making vaccines available in veterinary services;
• Carry out a systematic vaccination of the animals of Malian refugees located at the borders;
• Organize the provision of SPAI, fodder and water in certain high-risk areas;
• Support the establishment of a response and monitoring system at strategic focal points;
• Promote dialogue between countries to regulate and put into practice texts on cross-border transhumance in order to secure livestock.

Ministry of Health

• Make available in all regions the inputs for the care of the malnourished;
• Take into account periods of peak acute malnutrition to anticipate actions to curb the effects.

Ministry of Social Action and National Solidarity

• Ensure and support the common definition of the targeting process for beneficiaries in the communes at risk;
• Ensure and support the functionality and activity of CONASUR and its decentralized structures in the field.

Technical and Financial Partners

• Support the State in targeting, support and assistance actions for vulnerable populations;
• Plan support actions in consultation with the authorized structures (SP / CONASUR, DGPER, SE / CNSA).

Medium term
Ministry of Agriculture and Hydraulics

• Make agricultural inputs available to producers on time for the 2012-2013 campaign;
• Undertake the rehabilitation of damaged hydraulic dams.

Ministry of Animal Resources

• Continue the reconfiguration of pastoral areas (marking out the transhumance corridor) in order to reduce conflicts as soon as the agro-pastoral campaign is established.